Weekend Double

A suggestion for what should hopefully be a short price double this weekend. I would be confident that Mansfield Town have enough to see off Grays at the Recreation Ground, with ToteSport offering the best odds of 10/11. Add that to the over 2.5 goals on Cheltenham v Dagenham & Redbridge, both of whom score regularly and concede often enough, especially in the case of the Robins. That is also around the 9/10 mark. No refunds if they miss!

Luton Town - oooh, eeeh, ooh (with apologies to Cats UK)

With apologies for the delay, here's my trip report from Luton v Crawley. Yes, you can't beat the entrance to the away end (left) though I am not a Crawley fan.

Ultimately Luton won with something to spare but it's difficult to analyse the game in the long term. Luton did look strong going forward as you would expect (and the home fans were also pretty demanding) as you would also expect, feeling the club is too big for the division and also that they shouldn't be there after the 30 point deduction. Defender George Pilkington scored twice and already has four this season - one to watch for value if you can find first goalscorer odds at this level. I'd expect Luton to go close but I am not sure how the season will go for Crawley. They actually did pretty well for most of the first half with a team that had three loan signings in who had, you presume, barely met up with the squad at all. 18-year-old defender, Dominic Collins, a youngster on loan from Preston, did well. They should be ok, but are clearly going to miss top scorer Jamie Cook, who was abruptly sold on deadline day.

With our English Football Betting hat on, Luton should be good as part of doubles and trebles for most home matches as they are conceding very few goals. Can they pick up enough points on the road to win the title? We'll have to see.

Follow the Blue Square

So far this blog has been focused on mainly League One and League Two in our English Football Betting journey. So it's time we dipped into Division Five, the Football Conference, or to keep the sponsors happy, the Blue Square Premier. No league really has quite such an imbalance between it's biggest and smallest clubs as Luton and manager Mick Harford (above) take on Hayes & Yeading, who can easily get less than 500 for a home game.

The table is taking shape in a way that should surprise no-one. Oxford United, who have established a rich history at this level of comedic failure given their resources, are setting the pace. Under the astute managership of Chris Wilder, they will go very close but the failure to beat Forest Green is the first intriguing indication of whether their players will collapse under the weight of (oft deluded) expectations. This will also be a challenge for Luton, who have two goal-less draws in a row and a hard fought win over Gateshead to suggest bouncing back will not be that easy (it never is). Harford has never really had success as a manager, having been thrown in to a dismal situation at Rotherham and been stuffed last season by the 30 point deduction. I wonder how much patience his cult hero status will earn? My next live match is Luton v Crawley, who are nothing if not enigmatic. Mansfield Town have also begun well and I expect the league winner to come from these three.

Impressing elsewhere are Kettering (though I gather it's not always pretty) who have a good haul of points from a tough set of opening fixtures and while it would be a bit of a surprise to see AFC Wimbledon hang in there all season, Terry Brown nearly got a part time Aldershot side up into the league. He's a class act as manager and person.

Another promoted side, Tamworth, also fit into the overachievers and proud of it category. They look like they could have the kind of solid season Eastbourne Borough produced after promotion a year ago.

Struggling so far are Forest Green (off field trouble), Chester (off field trouble), Gateshead and Hayes & Yeading (promoted and small fan bases) and Ebbsfleet (a revamped squad and key players sold).

Chester do have some good players and as their squad gets melded and fitter, they might throw a few spanners in the work if you want easy single bets. Histon are perhaps now more worth oppposing, with the departures of Matt Mitchell-King, Jack Midson and Patrick Ada from last season's squad.

As I said, more impressions on Luton to follow, but the Conference should start to provide some good English Football betting opportunities now we have a reasonable chunk of form to go on. Good luck!

County get silly and other stuff

Ok, Sven was one thing, and we wondered about just good his knowledge of Macclesfield's back four might be (it's better as apparently he was seen at Moss Rose, albeit not till after kick off). Kaspar Schmeichel was another - a talented young goalkeeper who might have some re-sale value if things don't go according to plan, but when Sol Campbell (left) signs for Notts County I feel as if I have to reincarnate Graham Chapman, get him back in a military uniform and go "This is Getting Very Silly" in pure Python fashion.

IF this influx of spending at Notts County is going to be sustainable or last anything longer than some rather nice catherine wheel, then surely its about spending money on young players who can get better, not giving those on the way down five year contracts. Campbell adds massive ability, but any wages he are on may well disrupt harmony.

I fear that this that rather amiable club are going to spend a while picking up the pieces, if not in a Gretna like fashion, then with some pain in a few years time. With my punter's hat on, County simply aren't going to offer any value this season, possibly other than in the over/under goals per game when they whack a few past some of the lesser teams where the gap in resources is painfully evident.

Having seen Brighton and Milwall so far this season, I feel that it might be worth getting stuck into Millwall for their game at The Den on Friday. Brighton have ability and should not finish where they currently are but they have a defence in particular, that is really stretched through injuries and suspension. Bet 365 are the best price I can find for Millwall at the time of writing, at 4/5

The magic of the Cup

Carling Cup Second Round tonight then, and I am off to see Wolves v Swindon for my own amusement, rather than in a non-paying capacity. From an English Football Betting point of view though, the games are a nightmare, with team changes guaranteed. For example, both Gillingham and Blackburn are making changes. Gillingham, because they lost to Hartlepool - Blackburn, because they are a Premier League side and have to behave in that sort of way. If you are thinking about any bets, wait till the teamsheets come in. You then might just be able to get some value on the fixed odds coupons if anyone has pulled off some surprising starting selections.

Strange times at Sussex By the Sea

My trip to see Brighton v Stockport brought unexpected levels of drama, entertainment and even a little long term intrigue. The basic facts are Stockport won 4-2, but the game included three red cards, two penalties (one saved) and some of the best goals you will see among the lower leagues. More on Stockport in a minute, but to Brighton first.

Brighton's squad looks good in theory, with plenty of experienced players like Nicky Forster and Adam Virgo, plus the purchases of some young talent, like Wolves winger Elliot Bennett (who had a good debut) and striker Liam Dickinson. However, defensively they were caught square with alarming ease and most of their play seemed too sleepy in the summer sunshine. They remain winless, and intriguingly rumours that Dennis Wise is in line to take over were circulating beforehand, and I think have even started to reach the national papers. It seems madness after Slade rescued Brighton from a desparate situation last season and was handed a two year contract. He was also given plenty of licence to recruit in the summer but a new Chairman may have new ideas. I didn't expect Brighton to be in relegation trouble again, but they have work to do to get the individuals in the squad to translate their abilities into results.

As for Stockport, they found it difficult initially, with Peter Thompson playing as a lone striker, but every so often they would produce some quality. Carl Baker's second goal was brilliant, a run from half way to the edge of the box, weaving through players, before a perfect chip 18 yards out on his apparent weak foot. Gary Ablett seems to have been welcomed by all at County, the Football League have seen common sense in allowing them to bring in a loan player, but they will still have to work very hard to stay in the division. Given the handicaps they are under financially, for now, everyone there seems to show a level of intelligence and understanding of how things are.

So what have I learnt in English Football Betting terms about these two sides? Well, inconsistency means they are not ones to risk sums on for the outright win. The way Brighton are now though, you might want to look at the over 2.5 goals for some of their matches.

Other results to catch the eye were Gateshead's comprehensive Conference win at Crawley, who infuriate with some superb and then some downright weird results, while Bradford finally got off the mark with a win at Cheltenham. Bristol Rovers meanwhile, are seemingly in good spirits and going well despite the sale of Ricky Lambert.

That Friday feeling

So the weekend is almost upon us, what potential bets are there out there? I have to say they are a nasty looking bunch of games this weekend - unlike midweek where there were some standouts. The best value strikes me as the over 2.5 goals on the Notts County v Dagenham & Redbridge game. Both sides have good strikers and a knack of scoring, while County have been missing some players in defence. You might want to check if Graeme Lee, a good solid defender, is back for County before striking any bet. For the record Bet 365 go 4/5 here.

Other home wins you might consider in our trawl through English Football Betting, though I can't say any offer great value, are Brighton to beat Stockport - yes I really am recommending a team that lost 7-1 in its last game, which shows how much I fear for County. Brighton have a new winger and will change things round, they should have too much ability. I also expect Norwich to see off Wycombe with the first manager in charge = win theory. However, neither can be looked at with much confidence. The best I can really do is Leicester to beat Barnsley. Paul Gallagher looks a good signing for them.

But mostly its a weekend for keeping the powder dry and having another set of games to help us assess the coming season.