Weekend Double

A suggestion for what should hopefully be a short price double this weekend. I would be confident that Mansfield Town have enough to see off Grays at the Recreation Ground, with ToteSport offering the best odds of 10/11. Add that to the over 2.5 goals on Cheltenham v Dagenham & Redbridge, both of whom score regularly and concede often enough, especially in the case of the Robins. That is also around the 9/10 mark. No refunds if they miss!

Luton Town - oooh, eeeh, ooh (with apologies to Cats UK)

With apologies for the delay, here's my trip report from Luton v Crawley. Yes, you can't beat the entrance to the away end (left) though I am not a Crawley fan.

Ultimately Luton won with something to spare but it's difficult to analyse the game in the long term. Luton did look strong going forward as you would expect (and the home fans were also pretty demanding) as you would also expect, feeling the club is too big for the division and also that they shouldn't be there after the 30 point deduction. Defender George Pilkington scored twice and already has four this season - one to watch for value if you can find first goalscorer odds at this level. I'd expect Luton to go close but I am not sure how the season will go for Crawley. They actually did pretty well for most of the first half with a team that had three loan signings in who had, you presume, barely met up with the squad at all. 18-year-old defender, Dominic Collins, a youngster on loan from Preston, did well. They should be ok, but are clearly going to miss top scorer Jamie Cook, who was abruptly sold on deadline day.

With our English Football Betting hat on, Luton should be good as part of doubles and trebles for most home matches as they are conceding very few goals. Can they pick up enough points on the road to win the title? We'll have to see.

Follow the Blue Square

So far this blog has been focused on mainly League One and League Two in our English Football Betting journey. So it's time we dipped into Division Five, the Football Conference, or to keep the sponsors happy, the Blue Square Premier. No league really has quite such an imbalance between it's biggest and smallest clubs as Luton and manager Mick Harford (above) take on Hayes & Yeading, who can easily get less than 500 for a home game.

The table is taking shape in a way that should surprise no-one. Oxford United, who have established a rich history at this level of comedic failure given their resources, are setting the pace. Under the astute managership of Chris Wilder, they will go very close but the failure to beat Forest Green is the first intriguing indication of whether their players will collapse under the weight of (oft deluded) expectations. This will also be a challenge for Luton, who have two goal-less draws in a row and a hard fought win over Gateshead to suggest bouncing back will not be that easy (it never is). Harford has never really had success as a manager, having been thrown in to a dismal situation at Rotherham and been stuffed last season by the 30 point deduction. I wonder how much patience his cult hero status will earn? My next live match is Luton v Crawley, who are nothing if not enigmatic. Mansfield Town have also begun well and I expect the league winner to come from these three.

Impressing elsewhere are Kettering (though I gather it's not always pretty) who have a good haul of points from a tough set of opening fixtures and while it would be a bit of a surprise to see AFC Wimbledon hang in there all season, Terry Brown nearly got a part time Aldershot side up into the league. He's a class act as manager and person.

Another promoted side, Tamworth, also fit into the overachievers and proud of it category. They look like they could have the kind of solid season Eastbourne Borough produced after promotion a year ago.

Struggling so far are Forest Green (off field trouble), Chester (off field trouble), Gateshead and Hayes & Yeading (promoted and small fan bases) and Ebbsfleet (a revamped squad and key players sold).

Chester do have some good players and as their squad gets melded and fitter, they might throw a few spanners in the work if you want easy single bets. Histon are perhaps now more worth oppposing, with the departures of Matt Mitchell-King, Jack Midson and Patrick Ada from last season's squad.

As I said, more impressions on Luton to follow, but the Conference should start to provide some good English Football betting opportunities now we have a reasonable chunk of form to go on. Good luck!

County get silly and other stuff

Ok, Sven was one thing, and we wondered about just good his knowledge of Macclesfield's back four might be (it's better as apparently he was seen at Moss Rose, albeit not till after kick off). Kaspar Schmeichel was another - a talented young goalkeeper who might have some re-sale value if things don't go according to plan, but when Sol Campbell (left) signs for Notts County I feel as if I have to reincarnate Graham Chapman, get him back in a military uniform and go "This is Getting Very Silly" in pure Python fashion.

IF this influx of spending at Notts County is going to be sustainable or last anything longer than some rather nice catherine wheel, then surely its about spending money on young players who can get better, not giving those on the way down five year contracts. Campbell adds massive ability, but any wages he are on may well disrupt harmony.

I fear that this that rather amiable club are going to spend a while picking up the pieces, if not in a Gretna like fashion, then with some pain in a few years time. With my punter's hat on, County simply aren't going to offer any value this season, possibly other than in the over/under goals per game when they whack a few past some of the lesser teams where the gap in resources is painfully evident.

Having seen Brighton and Milwall so far this season, I feel that it might be worth getting stuck into Millwall for their game at The Den on Friday. Brighton have ability and should not finish where they currently are but they have a defence in particular, that is really stretched through injuries and suspension. Bet 365 are the best price I can find for Millwall at the time of writing, at 4/5

The magic of the Cup

Carling Cup Second Round tonight then, and I am off to see Wolves v Swindon for my own amusement, rather than in a non-paying capacity. From an English Football Betting point of view though, the games are a nightmare, with team changes guaranteed. For example, both Gillingham and Blackburn are making changes. Gillingham, because they lost to Hartlepool - Blackburn, because they are a Premier League side and have to behave in that sort of way. If you are thinking about any bets, wait till the teamsheets come in. You then might just be able to get some value on the fixed odds coupons if anyone has pulled off some surprising starting selections.

Strange times at Sussex By the Sea

My trip to see Brighton v Stockport brought unexpected levels of drama, entertainment and even a little long term intrigue. The basic facts are Stockport won 4-2, but the game included three red cards, two penalties (one saved) and some of the best goals you will see among the lower leagues. More on Stockport in a minute, but to Brighton first.

Brighton's squad looks good in theory, with plenty of experienced players like Nicky Forster and Adam Virgo, plus the purchases of some young talent, like Wolves winger Elliot Bennett (who had a good debut) and striker Liam Dickinson. However, defensively they were caught square with alarming ease and most of their play seemed too sleepy in the summer sunshine. They remain winless, and intriguingly rumours that Dennis Wise is in line to take over were circulating beforehand, and I think have even started to reach the national papers. It seems madness after Slade rescued Brighton from a desparate situation last season and was handed a two year contract. He was also given plenty of licence to recruit in the summer but a new Chairman may have new ideas. I didn't expect Brighton to be in relegation trouble again, but they have work to do to get the individuals in the squad to translate their abilities into results.

As for Stockport, they found it difficult initially, with Peter Thompson playing as a lone striker, but every so often they would produce some quality. Carl Baker's second goal was brilliant, a run from half way to the edge of the box, weaving through players, before a perfect chip 18 yards out on his apparent weak foot. Gary Ablett seems to have been welcomed by all at County, the Football League have seen common sense in allowing them to bring in a loan player, but they will still have to work very hard to stay in the division. Given the handicaps they are under financially, for now, everyone there seems to show a level of intelligence and understanding of how things are.

So what have I learnt in English Football Betting terms about these two sides? Well, inconsistency means they are not ones to risk sums on for the outright win. The way Brighton are now though, you might want to look at the over 2.5 goals for some of their matches.

Other results to catch the eye were Gateshead's comprehensive Conference win at Crawley, who infuriate with some superb and then some downright weird results, while Bradford finally got off the mark with a win at Cheltenham. Bristol Rovers meanwhile, are seemingly in good spirits and going well despite the sale of Ricky Lambert.

That Friday feeling

So the weekend is almost upon us, what potential bets are there out there? I have to say they are a nasty looking bunch of games this weekend - unlike midweek where there were some standouts. The best value strikes me as the over 2.5 goals on the Notts County v Dagenham & Redbridge game. Both sides have good strikers and a knack of scoring, while County have been missing some players in defence. You might want to check if Graeme Lee, a good solid defender, is back for County before striking any bet. For the record Bet 365 go 4/5 here.

Other home wins you might consider in our trawl through English Football Betting, though I can't say any offer great value, are Brighton to beat Stockport - yes I really am recommending a team that lost 7-1 in its last game, which shows how much I fear for County. Brighton have a new winger and will change things round, they should have too much ability. I also expect Norwich to see off Wycombe with the first manager in charge = win theory. However, neither can be looked at with much confidence. The best I can really do is Leicester to beat Barnsley. Paul Gallagher looks a good signing for them.

But mostly its a weekend for keeping the powder dry and having another set of games to help us assess the coming season.

Away from Football for a second.

If you like trawling the blogosphere - and I guess if you are here you must have some interest, then I am intrigued by a site called Alpha Inventions that just throws up the latest blog posts from wherever they happened to be posted and whatever they might be on. It's the blog lottery and it's strangely compelling!

When the Saints go marching down? Maybe not for much longer..

Reversing the slide in Southampton's fortunes is not going to be easy. The Saints were well beaten at Swindon on Tuesday (losing 1-0) despite the manager's protestations to the contrary, and forums are jammed packed full of demands for new defenders in particular.

Well the worst might be over, judging by three signings in the past 10 days or so. The first, Rickie Lambert, is already settling in and scoring goals as you would expect at League One level after 29 last time round at Bristol Rovers.

The two midweek signings though, I think, will propser. Dean Hammond from Colchester is an unfussy midfielder who will work hard without catching the eye enormously. He'll add some extra height and chip in with goals if given licence to go into the opposition penalty area. He's a good player at this level and will perform a valuable role, if not one to send the crowd into a frenzy. The second signing, defender Neal Trotman, is a good bruising centre-back, who should be strong in the air and on the ground and very effective at League One level.

These two new additions should help significantly - both will be needed on Saturday too, as Southampton have an awkward looking game with long throw and pressure specialists Brentford.

Iron, Like a Lion, in London

On Tuesday night I took in Millwall - against Oldham - at The Den. Millwall won 2-0 but were made to work hard for it. After making the play-offs last season I don't expect them to be too far away. I always like the way Kenny Jackett sets up his sides - I have seen his Millwall and Swansea sides a frew times - they never look likely to do something stupid, or get opened up defensively and as Saturday's game proved, mistakes at the lower levels do count for a lot. Referee Andy D'Urso also kept everyone entertained. The ref gave a penalty that had the home fans howling more than usual and wouldn't let Neil Harris on as a sub as he was wearing a normal wedding ring. Poor old Harris was stuck for five minutes at the end of the first half not being able to come on, while there were frantic efforts at half time to remove it, which was eventually done with soap and water, rather than a hacksaw as Mrs.Harris might have feared.

Millwall look value for grinding out home wins, especially as they have done ok so far with some important players missing.

Other results to catch the eye last night seemed to confirm some of the early season trends I posted last time out. Huddersfield took Brighton apart 7-1, while I expected Huddersfield to do well with their level of spending I didn't anticipate Brighton would struggle as they have so far. Stockport lost again - and Brighton-Stockport is my next game stop. In League Two another win for Bournemouth, but props to Dagenham, who sold off some of their successes from last season, but just as usual, drag a load of players out of non-league and get them to gel fast. Worries for Bradford too, who still haven't scored.

One or two people have asked if I will be doing regular tips. While the main purpose of this blog is to try and help you on your way to your own decisions, I will come up with a couple of selections - if you fancy a gamble, click on the links below each post, or in the sidebar, to sign up for a betting account and take advantage of the bonuses on offer.

These tips will go on the blog and also on the Online Betting Guide where I am known as EMSJanAage (long story). Tuesday night saw a short price double with home wins for Bournemouth and Rushden & Diamonds, but nothing is guaranteed!

Reading the Early Runes

Taking a look at Leagues One, Two and the Conference (I am a bit of a luddite when it comes to the name Blue Square Premier) let's take a look at after three games as to who is doing as well as you might expect - and perhaps as significantly as badly.

League One:

On the up: Huddersfield Town - as they should be having spent heavily over the past eight or nine months. They have impressive squad depth and players who have a good feel for the division.

Finding times hard: Stockport County - administration, a fire sale of even more players over the summer (seemingly a tunnel exists between Stockport and Brighton) and no cash means the squad they have now is weaker than the one that won promotion. New manager Gary Ablett has his work cut out.

Unrealistic expectations: Norwich City - I didn't understand them being fancied to bounce straight back with a new side and rookie manager. Clearly the board didn't either.

League Two:

On the up: Bournemouth - a storming finish, the same squad pretty much kept together and even hints at off pitch stabilty suggest they can be contenders. Beating Rotherham also looks good as well.

Finding times hard: Darlington - see Stockport. Administration again and no time to build a squad in the off season means Colin Todd must be in for a long campaign.

Unrealistic expectations: Bradford City - budget cuts after failing to make the play-offs last season make a playoff challenge more difficult, despite the venerable legend that is Peter Thorne still going up front.

Blue Square Premier:

On the up: Mansfield Town - a re-assembled squad and fans actually returning after the disgrace that was Keith Haslam's time in charge bodes well for a challenge of some sort.

Finding times hard: Forest Green - plenty of clubs to choose from here but the abrupt departure of Jim Harvey just before the start of the season and stronger clubs coming up makes it difficult for everyone's favourite team on the hill.

Unrealistic expectations: not Oxford United for a change, who have been a given in this category ever since relegation. While there are no definite winners I am told Stevenage Borough have been pretty direct so far this season and perhaps they might struggle to make another play off run in a stronger looking division.

My next stop tomorrow is Millwall, so more League One impressions then in this journey through English Football Betting.

To the Not So Mystic East...

My first trip of the season has taken me to the East - East London to be precise to see Leyton Orient & Oldham square off in League One. Oldham came away with the win but the game showed the more challenging side of lower division English football betting.

All three goals (Oldham won 2-1) came fairly directly from mistakes. You can track back all goals to errors eventually, but if you see the highlights you can see the keeper not really deal with Pawel Abbott's first, a real lack of defensive communication for the O's equaliser and Orient gave the ball away needlessly for the winning penalty.

From a football betting point of view I was impressed with how Oldham looked pretty comfortable once they were in the lead, which might be something to bear in mind if you can find in play markets.

As for a couple of players to watch and bear in mind, well. Pawel Abbott, the Oldham striker, looked excellent with his back to goal and played as the central striker in a 4-5-1 or 4-3-3 formation depending on your point of view. Any injuries to him (and he has had them in the past) could affect the Latics chances. Jason Demetriou of Orient usually catches the eye whenever I see him. He's a left winger with a nice first touch, a bit of pace and the ability to cross the ball in with real whip that's difficult to defend against. Oldham ended up using three different right backs during the game - after he had Andy Holdsworth booked early on there was a swap at half time with youngster Alex Marrow. Then when he was booked it was change time again. Orient didn't, or couldn't really get him into the game enough.

Finally, on manager watch, it seems Geraint Williams is still to commit himself to a long term contract with the O's.

The Sorry Case of Chester City

Well, some good news out of the Football Association - of a sort. Chester City are finally being allowed to start the Blue Square Premier season - albeit just a week behind everyone else. Chester have been a basket case for some time and seem to attract disaster. The reign of the American Terry Smith has to be one of the most bizarre interludes in the Football League, as he decided to have separate attack and defence coaches in homage to American Football. I should be mounted and stuffed as I actually saw his Chester side win a match - away from home too.

From a betting perspective it's interesting to see as I write that no-one has priced up Chester's first game. They are scheduled to be playing Cambridge United at the Deva Stadium on Saturday. Chester have to be worth opposing if you can get a bet on. A squad that was thin last season thanks to a transfer embargo that was never quite "solved" has been stripped of experienced players like Ryan Lowe and Kevin Ellison and they have only been allowed to play one pre-season game, so they simply have to be way behind other sides in preparation and fitness.

I wish Chester fans well though after years of dross, fear and paranoia over the future - often justified. The excellent DevaChat message board makes for sorry reading.

Welcome to the English Football Betting Blog

Hi - a warm welcome to my blog.

My name is the "Lowly Hack" and I'm hoping together we can put a little pressure on the bookmakers. I spend most of my time following English Football for a living with the vast majority of it outside the Premier League. So if you are coming here for news of Wayne Rooney's metatarsal or Frank Lampard's latest cake binge then I might not be your first port of call.

However, if you want useful, practical information and some decent comment on what might be good English football betting opportunities, then hang around. I made an absolute mint last year on Lewes getting relegated from the Blue Square Premier - when they were odds against! So if that's the kind of thing that you want to know more about, then I hope to provide you with some pointers to nudge you in the right direction.